From June to August, Goblin Traffic’s ASO campaign for N1 Bet generated 693 FTDs with an ROI of 112%. Over the same period, the total deposit volume increased fourfold.

In this case study, N1 Partners and Goblin Traffic break down the launch of Prediction Markets: which hypotheses they tested, how they scaled traffic, and what happened to users after FTD.

Team’s objective

Goblin Traffic has been working in iGaming performance marketing for more than 10 years. The team’s main acquisition channels include ASO, Facebook, and PPC.

The objective was to test ASO as an acquisition channel for Prediction Markets. N1 Bet was selected for the launch.

Why N1 Partners?

When choosing a partner, Goblin Traffic relied on its previous experience working with N1 Partners.

Preparing for the campaign 

Before launching the ASO campaign, the teams considered:

• search intent;
• the app’s ranking in the app store;
• localization;
• app store listing optimization;
• alignment between the product and user expectations.

When evaluating the traffic source, the teams looked beyond standard casino and sports betting metrics and considered the entire user journey, from install and registration to FTD and subsequent in-product behavior.

Testing hypotheses

At the start, the teams tested search queries and positioning variations to identify the combinations that delivered the strongest performance.

The tests started with small traffic volumes. Underperforming variants were paused, while successful ones were scaled. N1 Partners and Goblin Traffic regularly analyzed the performance of individual segments and used the results to determine the next steps.

This was particularly important for Prediction Markets: there was no established playbook at the start, so decisions were based on insights from both teams.

Post-FTD behavior

For some users, Prediction Markets became their first point of contact with N1 Bet. Users who came through Prediction Markets then moved on to sports betting rather than casino. According to N1 Partners data, 60% of these players became sports bettors.

What worked

The keyword strategy focused on search queries containing references to Prediction Markets.

Politics proved to be the most in-demand category, so it was incorporated into the positioning. Canada delivered the strongest results. During optimization, the teams considered not only search demand but also N1 Partners data on the events that attracted the most user interest.

Results

From June to August, the ASO campaign delivered:

• 693 FTDs
• CPA: €180
• ROI: 112%
• 4x growth in total deposit volume since launch

ASO traffic was scaled without a decline in key performance metrics. The nature of Prediction Markets also contributed to this result: offers are not dependent solely on the sports calendar, so users have a steady flow of relevant events to bet on.

Key takeaways

“You should not automatically apply existing models from other gambling products to Prediction Markets. The user journey and post-registration behavior are different, so the usual benchmarks need to be reassessed. The initial ASO results show that the vertical is worth developing further. But the market is still at an early stage, and there are many hypotheses left to test. For us, this campaign is more of a starting point than a finished story,” says Lev, Founder of Goblin Traffic.

The case confirmed the potential of ASO for Prediction Markets and gave the team a foundation for further testing and optimization.

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